Wagering requirements are quoted as a multiplier, which hides what they cost. Converting them into turnover, and then into expected loss, takes one line of arithmetic and changes which offers look attractive.
The conversion
Turnover equals the bonus multiplied by the requirement. Expected loss equals turnover multiplied by the house edge. That is it.
A 100 dollar bonus at 35x is 3,500 dollars of turnover. On a slot returning 96 percent, the edge is 4 percent, so the expected cost of clearing it is 140 dollars. The bonus was 100. You are paying 140 to keep 100, on average, which is why so few bonuses convert.
The same bonus across common requirements
| Requirement | Turnover on 100 | Cost at 96% RTP | Cost at 97% RTP | Net on the 100 bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x | 2,000 | 80 | 60 | +20 to +40 |
| 25x | 2,500 | 100 | 75 | 0 to +25 |
| 30x | 3,000 | 120 | 90 | -20 to +10 |
| 35x | 3,500 | 140 | 105 | -40 to -5 |
| 45x | 4,500 | 180 | 135 | -80 to -35 |
Two things fall out of this. The break-even sits near 25x on a typical slot, and game choice moves the line as much as the multiplier does. One percentage point of return is worth roughly five multiples of wagering.
Bonus only, or deposit plus bonus
This phrase doubles the requirement and is easy to skim past. A 100 dollar bonus on a 100 dollar deposit at 30x bonus only is 3,000 of turnover. The same offer at 30x deposit plus bonus is 6,000. Same headline, twice the work, and both are described as 30x.
Contribution turns one number into another
Game weighting is applied on top. If blackjack contributes 10 percent, every dollar wagered counts as ten cents toward the requirement. A 30x bonus cleared on blackjack is a 300x bonus in practice, and the lower house edge does not come close to compensating.
The trap is that low-edge games are usually the ones weighted down, precisely because operators know the arithmetic. Slots contribute fully and cost you 4 percent. Table games cost you half a percent and contribute a tenth. There is no free option in that table.
Reading an offer in thirty seconds
Multiply the bonus by the requirement. Compare that turnover to what you would normally stake in a session. If it is ten times larger, you will not clear it. Then check the contribution table, because it can multiply that number again, and check the cashout cap, which sets your ceiling regardless.
Offers that survive all four checks exist but are a minority. Listings that show wagering and cashout next to the amount, as the roundups of no deposit offers worth claiming do, let you skip the ones that fail on arithmetic alone.
